Would you do an article about moving money to safer investments? Or if you have done, please reference it again. I’m interested in knowing what others are doing now as I am looking around at options for myself. Thanks! ¡Viva México!
Ohhh, that's a bit off our brand, but maybe! (We're doing a combination of rebalancing (less exposure to stocks); keeping/moving money to FDIC money markets and "settlement" funds (with 4% interest rates); and also some hedging (which is a kind of investing-insurance: reduced gains in exchange for higher security).
I hope some of your investments are NOT in U.S. finances, given President Musk - er, "Trump" seems hell-bent on flushing our economy down the toilet....
HSBC UK offers an Expat bank account to which we have moved some funds at the suggestion of our US based Merril Lynch adviser. It was simple. Other accounts for diversification we chose also. Please talk with a Financial Planner.
First off, you used my favorite phrase: “shitting the bed”. I can’t tell you how often I use it, especially with regards to our country’s current state.
Second, your math is outstanding. And your reasoning sound.
As we started our downsizing journey (sold the house and while we realized some increase it was a small TX town and we did not have large city profit) we decided that renting was the safe way for us to control our limited, small budget. About that time a friend shared this quote that expressed exactly how we felt ""Rent is the maximum you'll pay. Your mortgage is the minimum you'll pay” quote by Ramit Sethi". This coming from a millionaire as to why they choose to rent was very affirming. We always know that if we are priced out of one rental market we just step down in size/style or move to another city. It keeps us free and in these unstable times we are very thankful we have kept that mobility as our friends have to either abandon their largest investment (their home) or sell at a loss quickly to escape any cullings/terror that our current government might exact on our community.
Years ago, we read a book called Washington Real Estate, and it was 80,000 words of the author saying, "Buy a house, not a condo, buy a house, not a condo, buy a house, not a condo."
Must depend on the market. What are the arguments? Here in Vancouver, everyone who can't own a house & land buys a condo & part ownership of the communal property.
They can ALWAYS build more condos, but you can't build more houses, so houses are fundamentally a better investment -- and they always appreciate more faster, and they hold their value longer. Also, the home owner's association dues often skew things in an extremely expensive direction. Finally, you're putting yourself at the mercy of a group of people who may make decisions that affect you negatively or that you disagree with. Also, it's HARD AS HELL to get people to do any work -- although those same people will always be the first to show up to criticize any work you do and will oppose anything you're advocating for the building. That means, since people aren't willing to be reasonable and share common duties, you have to hire a management company, which will be very expensive. What am I missing, Amran?
Looks like condo set-ups are really different depending on the place. Here, there are no condos that aren't managed professionally. There is a BC Strata Property Act that presumably outlines all of that. What you've described is more in line with what we call co-op housing here, where the owners take responsibility for and do the maintenance or hire it out piecemeal.
Also, HOAs here don't have the kind of power that I've heard the horror stories about in the US.
What is meant by "you can build more condos but not houses"? Need more context
Because condos are high-density. You can always build upward! But houses require a plot of land which is more finite. So it holds much more value, or so the theory goes.
I’m always fascinated by the (mostly) people from the US having this need to “buy / own”. I find myself trending that way now here in Barcelona. And I know it doesn’t make financial sense. And I know that since I’ve avoided buying a “home base” abroad I’ve used that money in both US rental properties for income and significant growth in the world wide stock markets, to rent whatever and wherever I want…. and yet when so many of us walk by a realtors office we look at those ads and think… maybe…. Looks like you are having fun! We humans are so fascinating.
It is partly that, but it's also that (at least in the Seattle area of the US), we and those like us learned that you can make a MASSIVE amount of money in real estate -- just off-the-charts ridiculous. That has been our experience. It's not sustainable, of course, and it was mostly luck on our part. But it's hard not to think, "Well, we did once -- actually, three times, with three different houses..." Also, it's also very very VERY true that Americans are wildly individualist and materialistic. That's a big part of what's going on here.
Hey Brent, cashing in on housing has been our experience since we've also lived in fast appreciating markets. The power of borrowing other people's money and leverage works great when things are on the ups!
One counterpoint: those increasing markets happened at a time when housing affordability wasn't f'd. With prices in the sky and interest rates relatively high, sooo many people are priced out. Sure, rates hit 18% in the 80s...but affordability is worse now than it was then by a long shot! The worst it's ever been.
All to say, I agree with your idea of renting for now and eyeing safe haven investments! There will be markets (e.g. PV or climate havens?) that can escape this trend, but that's a roll of the dice.
Even if we miss some upside, at least we get to sleep (a little) better at night in this crazy world!
Yes, I don't know how younger buyers and renters manage with (with help from parents). And as you say, it's really not sustainable.
There are other things going on, of course. Americans now want much BIGGER houses, and more personal space, than they did back in the 80s. Young people say, "Why can I afford my own one-bedroom apartment?" But even back in the 80s, people in their early twenties did not have one-bedroom apartments. All my friends had a room in a house. Expectations are soooo different now.
Honestly, it seems like the problem was Covid. Prices were high before then but not insane. This definitely seems unsustainable.
I loved this post - I am also someone who maintains multiple possibilities in my head and it is EXHAUSTING! My husband and I have some international travel plans lined up this year - already paid for - so it’ll be interesting to note the vibes when we arrive. I would love to read a post about investing while abroad, or how you guys “do” investing in the first place. Not as financial advice, but as a curiosity point!
Well that gave me a lot to think about, and it crossed PV and anywhere in Mexico off the list of possibilities for us. From conversations with expats Mexico City, all the gringos fleeing the US Covid lock down is what spiked prices and that would happen again if things under Trump get much worse. Southeast Asia still looks like the most likely region for us long term.
Thanks for taking us on that little journey, Brent. Sounds like you guys got a lot out of it going through the process (that open air funicular - so dang cool). And I like how you summed it all up. I'm not expert on the economy, but this real estate bubble is not feasible. Eventually the maths doesn't work!
I'd super curious to hear about what you guys are doing with your money to avoid collateral damage from any collapse, but maybe that's a question for a DM 😉
Well, truthfully, I'm worried the entire financial system could come down. But in the meanwhile, we're moving to a more conservative rebalancing -- 50% or less in stocks, more in bonds, moved a whole bunch to (high interest rate FDIC-insured) money market, and we're exploring "hedging" which is kind of an insurance for investing in the U.S. But I'm no expert!
What an interesting article! My husband and I have often played “what if” the US crashes and burns. Would we be better off in another country? Still trying to decide as the chaos continues. You have given us great insight into the pros and cons of searching for a new home outside of the US. Thanks!
Hi Brent, I enjoyed this post. So much of what you said resonates with me. I am based mostly in Italy but have had a hard time totally giving up on coastal California where I come from.
I speak Italian and all that, but I will always be a foreigner. As much as there's so much to appreciate about Italian culture, I also love and miss the specific culture of Santa Cruz where I was born and raised, and apart from fire threat, the climate in Santa Cruz is much more palatable as it remains very mild in the summer, whereas in Florence, I literally have to leave in the summer or spend the whole summer ill due to the extreme heat and humidity.
But I can't afford to maintain a place in both locations, so I am constantly wondering which to give up, and where to ultimately settle. Now there's all the awfulness in my country which may make me feel forced to give up California for good.
Thanks for listening to all of that, and now I have a question for you. You mentioned you've moved your $ into safer investments in anticipation of a collapse. I am very non-savvy with finances and I would be very grateful if you could share (if you're comfortable... feel free to message me directly) any tips about what is "safer". Would you suggest no longer keeping any investments and savings with a US-based financial institution?
haha, thank you! and I'm sorry: that sounds like a really difficult decision!
Well, keep in mind that I am no expert! But we've done this: keep a large amount of money in high-interesting (4%) money markets (FDIC insured); rebalance our portfolio, so it's more conservative, less risky -- fewer stocks, more bonds. And now we're exploring "hedging" which is a kind of investing insurance offered by financial advisors: less chance of a big gain in exchange for less risk. (There are scams here too, so watch out for them!)
Yes, I'm worried about that too. It sure seems like Trump and Musk are gunning for it hard. I think the plan rightnow is to run up such massive deficits with huge tax cuts for billionaires that there will be no alternative in the future except to cut benefits. Sighhhhh. Such an obvious con.
VENICE BEACH, LA was home until January 15 where I rented from a Hollywood Lady Director with the most exquisite home library AND we had Hummingbirds(my idea of HEAVEN)-- but though I send my best vibrations(as a Californian would) I have NO faith in any meaningful resistance. We're now in coastal England and shocked at how our mental health has improved. I will always love California but we aren't looking back. I have found places where citizens will storm the streets(France & Spain)when necessary and I will give them my energy. WE ARE ALL EUROPEAN NOW!
The subreddit r/PersonalFinance would be a good place to ask questions. The ones who respond know their stuff well enough or can give you ideas. Def consult with a financial planner at least to get the basics down.
Good choice. As someone who was involved with a family-owned rental property for a year or so, I tell everyone, "DO NOT DO IT, unless you really and truly love the idea of being a landlord, and also of doing or at least contracting out house repairs at any unknown hour of the day, year round." I am so grateful other people like to be landlords, so that I can rent their property when I'm on vacation. But that work is not for me, and probably is not for a lot of other people either.
Thanks for the confirmation! yes, this is what our gut is strongly telling us. It would be a different question at a (much!) lower price, but for this much money? NFW.
Definitely true on the money side too, yep. A rental can certainly bring in a lot of money per renter, which seems enticing on the surface. But each renter involves a fair amount of correspondence and schedule coordinating (including cleaners and any other maintenance), and people often neglect to take into account how many hours of your week that stuff takes up—hours you're working and not exactly getting paid for. Then adding in the actual cost of buying the place and paying its annual taxes, etc.—oof, yeah. It becomes much less alluring.
"Wait" is a good idea, IMO. The current Mexican President seems pretty awesome, but Mexico's had a LOT of problems with gang crime for a while now.
Worse, as we've seen at home? Good, or even halfway-decent, elected leaders can change for reasons BAFFLING to us in favor of Fascist thugs, or worse utter MORONS who want to be Fascist thugs, and are in the pockets of far more successful Fascist thugs. And...you're not only *gringos*, you're a same-sex couple of *gringos*.
While I'm heartened at how many gay people you've found living and working in Puerto Vallarta? Mexico never struck me as anything close to a haven for LGBTQ people.
Admittedly the only part of Mexico I know is Tijuana, and I haven't been back there in many decades. I would LOVE to be wrong about all of this, as it sounds lovely and, if you should catch a windfall (i.e., somebody wants to make your travel writing into a television series?), buying a condo there might be both a retreat and good investment for you.
I do think the Mexican people are more "live and let live" than you would think -- they seem like the chillest folks on Earth. But yes, your notes of caution are all spot-on.
This morning I went to the Oxxo on Francisca Rodriguez right by the pier for coffee. Standing next to me waiting to get hot water for his mate was an Argentinean who struck up a conversation with me. Turns out he's a tour guide. He asked if I had ever been to Conchas Chinas. Before today I had never heard of it. (I've been to Vallarta about 5 times now.) An hour later I read your article and you mention it.
Synchronicity = meaningful coincidences that occur more frequently than chance would predict, suggesting they may be evidence of grace or a higher force at work in the universe.
Take any income projections with a grain of salt and deduct about 25 percent from that. Yes things soared during Covid but a ton of people bought there then when the only place Americans could go was Mexico and Croatia. Now travel is unlimited, and those people are all trying to rent out their Vallarta condos. If anyone inquires about rentals even vaguely on a FB group within minutes dozens of condo owners are there sending their Airbnb listings.
And in Vallarta unless you are actual beachfront NEVER assume the view will stay. Yes there are height restrictions but those are violated repeatedly with no consequences.
I have looked at Vallarta as in investment option for years now and so far haven't found a deal I think it a solid enough return based just on investment.
I LOVE Vallarta. But it's a lot harder to make a solid investment there these days.
VERY INTERESTING and also very helpful! Yes, we were aware of the "view" issue -- and also, there are a TON of "for sale" signs (people who bought during covid and now want to sell, it seems). Your other points are very very solid. This feels like an EXTREMELY mature market -- and frankly, there are also a zillion developments going up, which will further depress prices IMHO.
Thanks for confirming our hesitation! These prices are just way too high.
I do love that you hated the modern condos. The classic Vallarta style with a lot of attention to detail is getting harder and harder to find. I predict a glut of the modern 1992 Miami Beach Builder Grade Special that so much of Romantic Zone seems to be these days.
If i do find a place I think it will be either closer to the river in the RZ (SO much cool stuff is opening there as The Gay is priced out of beachfront) or in Gringo Gulch / behind the church. Gringo Gulch and Centro have far stronger height restriction protections (though still no absolute guarantee). And you get killer views but still easy access to shops and breakfast coffee.
For my $$ the River Cuale is the great undiscovered gem of Vallarta both in terms of beauty and of investment potential How that area isn't more in demand I will never understand.
We find RZ to be too busy and too loud. I am concerned by all the crazy development in centro and (frankly) I don't think the views are as good as they are from Conchas Chinas -- and for us, it really is about the view. But yes, it is a longer talk to town -- 30 minutes is too much just to grab a cup of coffee or dinner. Hmm, will have to check out the River from a real estate perspective...
Would you do an article about moving money to safer investments? Or if you have done, please reference it again. I’m interested in knowing what others are doing now as I am looking around at options for myself. Thanks! ¡Viva México!
Ohhh, that's a bit off our brand, but maybe! (We're doing a combination of rebalancing (less exposure to stocks); keeping/moving money to FDIC money markets and "settlement" funds (with 4% interest rates); and also some hedging (which is a kind of investing-insurance: reduced gains in exchange for higher security).
Thank you. I really appreciate your response and love reading your posts!
I hope some of your investments are NOT in U.S. finances, given President Musk - er, "Trump" seems hell-bent on flushing our economy down the toilet....
HSBC UK offers an Expat bank account to which we have moved some funds at the suggestion of our US based Merril Lynch adviser. It was simple. Other accounts for diversification we chose also. Please talk with a Financial Planner.
Good advice. Thanks!
First off, you used my favorite phrase: “shitting the bed”. I can’t tell you how often I use it, especially with regards to our country’s current state.
Second, your math is outstanding. And your reasoning sound.
As always, you give plenty of food for thought!
Well, good thing you like that phrase because methinks it’s going to get a lot of use in the years ahead!
Undoubtedly. What have the idiotic voters of this country wrought? Wonders never cease.
Haha, yes it's my go-to lately too.
Thank you!
As we started our downsizing journey (sold the house and while we realized some increase it was a small TX town and we did not have large city profit) we decided that renting was the safe way for us to control our limited, small budget. About that time a friend shared this quote that expressed exactly how we felt ""Rent is the maximum you'll pay. Your mortgage is the minimum you'll pay” quote by Ramit Sethi". This coming from a millionaire as to why they choose to rent was very affirming. We always know that if we are priced out of one rental market we just step down in size/style or move to another city. It keeps us free and in these unstable times we are very thankful we have kept that mobility as our friends have to either abandon their largest investment (their home) or sell at a loss quickly to escape any cullings/terror that our current government might exact on our community.
That is EXTREMELY WISE advice! Love it! 😍
Agreed, I love the idea of mobility freedom.
I love Ramit, didn't realize he was still around.
I would also consider getting your money out of the States ASAP, if you can. I would if I had enough of a balance to do so.
That is a good point. We're thinking about this!
Life rule #1: Never buy a condo.
Life rule #2: Never buy a condo.
LOL
Years ago, we read a book called Washington Real Estate, and it was 80,000 words of the author saying, "Buy a house, not a condo, buy a house, not a condo, buy a house, not a condo."
We agree! But it's fun to look...
Must depend on the market. What are the arguments? Here in Vancouver, everyone who can't own a house & land buys a condo & part ownership of the communal property.
They can ALWAYS build more condos, but you can't build more houses, so houses are fundamentally a better investment -- and they always appreciate more faster, and they hold their value longer. Also, the home owner's association dues often skew things in an extremely expensive direction. Finally, you're putting yourself at the mercy of a group of people who may make decisions that affect you negatively or that you disagree with. Also, it's HARD AS HELL to get people to do any work -- although those same people will always be the first to show up to criticize any work you do and will oppose anything you're advocating for the building. That means, since people aren't willing to be reasonable and share common duties, you have to hire a management company, which will be very expensive. What am I missing, Amran?
Looks like condo set-ups are really different depending on the place. Here, there are no condos that aren't managed professionally. There is a BC Strata Property Act that presumably outlines all of that. What you've described is more in line with what we call co-op housing here, where the owners take responsibility for and do the maintenance or hire it out piecemeal.
Also, HOAs here don't have the kind of power that I've heard the horror stories about in the US.
What is meant by "you can build more condos but not houses"? Need more context
Interesting about BC real estate tho!
Because condos are high-density. You can always build upward! But houses require a plot of land which is more finite. So it holds much more value, or so the theory goes.
I’m always fascinated by the (mostly) people from the US having this need to “buy / own”. I find myself trending that way now here in Barcelona. And I know it doesn’t make financial sense. And I know that since I’ve avoided buying a “home base” abroad I’ve used that money in both US rental properties for income and significant growth in the world wide stock markets, to rent whatever and wherever I want…. and yet when so many of us walk by a realtors office we look at those ads and think… maybe…. Looks like you are having fun! We humans are so fascinating.
It is partly that, but it's also that (at least in the Seattle area of the US), we and those like us learned that you can make a MASSIVE amount of money in real estate -- just off-the-charts ridiculous. That has been our experience. It's not sustainable, of course, and it was mostly luck on our part. But it's hard not to think, "Well, we did once -- actually, three times, with three different houses..." Also, it's also very very VERY true that Americans are wildly individualist and materialistic. That's a big part of what's going on here.
Hey Brent, cashing in on housing has been our experience since we've also lived in fast appreciating markets. The power of borrowing other people's money and leverage works great when things are on the ups!
One counterpoint: those increasing markets happened at a time when housing affordability wasn't f'd. With prices in the sky and interest rates relatively high, sooo many people are priced out. Sure, rates hit 18% in the 80s...but affordability is worse now than it was then by a long shot! The worst it's ever been.
All to say, I agree with your idea of renting for now and eyeing safe haven investments! There will be markets (e.g. PV or climate havens?) that can escape this trend, but that's a roll of the dice.
Even if we miss some upside, at least we get to sleep (a little) better at night in this crazy world!
Yes, I don't know how younger buyers and renters manage with (with help from parents). And as you say, it's really not sustainable.
There are other things going on, of course. Americans now want much BIGGER houses, and more personal space, than they did back in the 80s. Young people say, "Why can I afford my own one-bedroom apartment?" But even back in the 80s, people in their early twenties did not have one-bedroom apartments. All my friends had a room in a house. Expectations are soooo different now.
Honestly, it seems like the problem was Covid. Prices were high before then but not insane. This definitely seems unsustainable.
I loved this post - I am also someone who maintains multiple possibilities in my head and it is EXHAUSTING! My husband and I have some international travel plans lined up this year - already paid for - so it’ll be interesting to note the vibes when we arrive. I would love to read a post about investing while abroad, or how you guys “do” investing in the first place. Not as financial advice, but as a curiosity point!
LOL that is exactly what it is, exhausting! Oh well, we are what we are.
I will think about the "investing" piece! We're conservative lately (but I'm not sure you can *be* too conservative right now.
Well that gave me a lot to think about, and it crossed PV and anywhere in Mexico off the list of possibilities for us. From conversations with expats Mexico City, all the gringos fleeing the US Covid lock down is what spiked prices and that would happen again if things under Trump get much worse. Southeast Asia still looks like the most likely region for us long term.
Exploring Thailand's digital nomad visa right now
That’s where our thinking is headed…
We'll be back in that part of the world in December and most of 2026.
Coincidence! Same.
Shah, just don't tell Michael! 😉
Don't worry -- Michael has no interest in where Waldo is.
If I can come stay! 😉
Thanks for taking us on that little journey, Brent. Sounds like you guys got a lot out of it going through the process (that open air funicular - so dang cool). And I like how you summed it all up. I'm not expert on the economy, but this real estate bubble is not feasible. Eventually the maths doesn't work!
I'd super curious to hear about what you guys are doing with your money to avoid collateral damage from any collapse, but maybe that's a question for a DM 😉
Well, truthfully, I'm worried the entire financial system could come down. But in the meanwhile, we're moving to a more conservative rebalancing -- 50% or less in stocks, more in bonds, moved a whole bunch to (high interest rate FDIC-insured) money market, and we're exploring "hedging" which is kind of an insurance for investing in the U.S. But I'm no expert!
Ah ok. Thanks for sharing! All this has been on my mind lately, but it sounds like that's the case for a lot of people. Understandably.
What an interesting article! My husband and I have often played “what if” the US crashes and burns. Would we be better off in another country? Still trying to decide as the chaos continues. You have given us great insight into the pros and cons of searching for a new home outside of the US. Thanks!
You're very welcome. I wish I didn't have to write about this.
Hi Brent, I enjoyed this post. So much of what you said resonates with me. I am based mostly in Italy but have had a hard time totally giving up on coastal California where I come from.
I speak Italian and all that, but I will always be a foreigner. As much as there's so much to appreciate about Italian culture, I also love and miss the specific culture of Santa Cruz where I was born and raised, and apart from fire threat, the climate in Santa Cruz is much more palatable as it remains very mild in the summer, whereas in Florence, I literally have to leave in the summer or spend the whole summer ill due to the extreme heat and humidity.
But I can't afford to maintain a place in both locations, so I am constantly wondering which to give up, and where to ultimately settle. Now there's all the awfulness in my country which may make me feel forced to give up California for good.
Thanks for listening to all of that, and now I have a question for you. You mentioned you've moved your $ into safer investments in anticipation of a collapse. I am very non-savvy with finances and I would be very grateful if you could share (if you're comfortable... feel free to message me directly) any tips about what is "safer". Would you suggest no longer keeping any investments and savings with a US-based financial institution?
haha, thank you! and I'm sorry: that sounds like a really difficult decision!
Well, keep in mind that I am no expert! But we've done this: keep a large amount of money in high-interesting (4%) money markets (FDIC insured); rebalance our portfolio, so it's more conservative, less risky -- fewer stocks, more bonds. And now we're exploring "hedging" which is a kind of investing insurance offered by financial advisors: less chance of a big gain in exchange for less risk. (There are scams here too, so watch out for them!)
Thanks! I suppose there's nothing we can do to protect our social security 🙈
Yes, I'm worried about that too. It sure seems like Trump and Musk are gunning for it hard. I think the plan rightnow is to run up such massive deficits with huge tax cuts for billionaires that there will be no alternative in the future except to cut benefits. Sighhhhh. Such an obvious con.
VENICE BEACH, LA was home until January 15 where I rented from a Hollywood Lady Director with the most exquisite home library AND we had Hummingbirds(my idea of HEAVEN)-- but though I send my best vibrations(as a Californian would) I have NO faith in any meaningful resistance. We're now in coastal England and shocked at how our mental health has improved. I will always love California but we aren't looking back. I have found places where citizens will storm the streets(France & Spain)when necessary and I will give them my energy. WE ARE ALL EUROPEAN NOW!
Thanks, Frank, I appreciate hearing from you about this. My sister moved to England. In what part of England are you?
The subreddit r/PersonalFinance would be a good place to ask questions. The ones who respond know their stuff well enough or can give you ideas. Def consult with a financial planner at least to get the basics down.
Thank you!
Good choice. As someone who was involved with a family-owned rental property for a year or so, I tell everyone, "DO NOT DO IT, unless you really and truly love the idea of being a landlord, and also of doing or at least contracting out house repairs at any unknown hour of the day, year round." I am so grateful other people like to be landlords, so that I can rent their property when I'm on vacation. But that work is not for me, and probably is not for a lot of other people either.
Thanks for the confirmation! yes, this is what our gut is strongly telling us. It would be a different question at a (much!) lower price, but for this much money? NFW.
Definitely true on the money side too, yep. A rental can certainly bring in a lot of money per renter, which seems enticing on the surface. But each renter involves a fair amount of correspondence and schedule coordinating (including cleaners and any other maintenance), and people often neglect to take into account how many hours of your week that stuff takes up—hours you're working and not exactly getting paid for. Then adding in the actual cost of buying the place and paying its annual taxes, etc.—oof, yeah. It becomes much less alluring.
"Wait" is a good idea, IMO. The current Mexican President seems pretty awesome, but Mexico's had a LOT of problems with gang crime for a while now.
Worse, as we've seen at home? Good, or even halfway-decent, elected leaders can change for reasons BAFFLING to us in favor of Fascist thugs, or worse utter MORONS who want to be Fascist thugs, and are in the pockets of far more successful Fascist thugs. And...you're not only *gringos*, you're a same-sex couple of *gringos*.
While I'm heartened at how many gay people you've found living and working in Puerto Vallarta? Mexico never struck me as anything close to a haven for LGBTQ people.
Admittedly the only part of Mexico I know is Tijuana, and I haven't been back there in many decades. I would LOVE to be wrong about all of this, as it sounds lovely and, if you should catch a windfall (i.e., somebody wants to make your travel writing into a television series?), buying a condo there might be both a retreat and good investment for you.
I heartily agree with all of this!
I do think the Mexican people are more "live and let live" than you would think -- they seem like the chillest folks on Earth. But yes, your notes of caution are all spot-on.
This morning I went to the Oxxo on Francisca Rodriguez right by the pier for coffee. Standing next to me waiting to get hot water for his mate was an Argentinean who struck up a conversation with me. Turns out he's a tour guide. He asked if I had ever been to Conchas Chinas. Before today I had never heard of it. (I've been to Vallarta about 5 times now.) An hour later I read your article and you mention it.
LOL isn't that ALWAYS the way it works?
Synchronicity = meaningful coincidences that occur more frequently than chance would predict, suggesting they may be evidence of grace or a higher force at work in the universe.
Take any income projections with a grain of salt and deduct about 25 percent from that. Yes things soared during Covid but a ton of people bought there then when the only place Americans could go was Mexico and Croatia. Now travel is unlimited, and those people are all trying to rent out their Vallarta condos. If anyone inquires about rentals even vaguely on a FB group within minutes dozens of condo owners are there sending their Airbnb listings.
And in Vallarta unless you are actual beachfront NEVER assume the view will stay. Yes there are height restrictions but those are violated repeatedly with no consequences.
I have looked at Vallarta as in investment option for years now and so far haven't found a deal I think it a solid enough return based just on investment.
I LOVE Vallarta. But it's a lot harder to make a solid investment there these days.
VERY INTERESTING and also very helpful! Yes, we were aware of the "view" issue -- and also, there are a TON of "for sale" signs (people who bought during covid and now want to sell, it seems). Your other points are very very solid. This feels like an EXTREMELY mature market -- and frankly, there are also a zillion developments going up, which will further depress prices IMHO.
Thanks for confirming our hesitation! These prices are just way too high.
I do love that you hated the modern condos. The classic Vallarta style with a lot of attention to detail is getting harder and harder to find. I predict a glut of the modern 1992 Miami Beach Builder Grade Special that so much of Romantic Zone seems to be these days.
If i do find a place I think it will be either closer to the river in the RZ (SO much cool stuff is opening there as The Gay is priced out of beachfront) or in Gringo Gulch / behind the church. Gringo Gulch and Centro have far stronger height restriction protections (though still no absolute guarantee). And you get killer views but still easy access to shops and breakfast coffee.
For my $$ the River Cuale is the great undiscovered gem of Vallarta both in terms of beauty and of investment potential How that area isn't more in demand I will never understand.
Not crazy about the "concrete sofas" but we LOVE the tile work, and the arched doorways and windows, and the built-in planters, etc.
We find RZ to be too busy and too loud. I am concerned by all the crazy development in centro and (frankly) I don't think the views are as good as they are from Conchas Chinas -- and for us, it really is about the view. But yes, it is a longer talk to town -- 30 minutes is too much just to grab a cup of coffee or dinner. Hmm, will have to check out the River from a real estate perspective...