I'm Not *Glad* Energy Costs Are Rising. But There Could Be Some Benefits.
When God closes a door, he opens an energy efficient window.
Energy costs are skyrocketing. Has anyone noticed?
It’s caused, of course, by America’s war with Iran and the subsequent closing of the Strait of Hormuz, which is used to transport a significant portion of the world’s oil and natural gas.
The price of gasoline has risen between 30% and 50%, depending on where you are in the world. Airfares have risen as much as 40%, depending on the length of the trip. And the cost of electricity and natural gas is exploding, in some cases more than doubling.
As a result, many people are suffering, especially in poorer countries. If the war continues much longer, the world may slip into a global recession, and this too will hit poorer countries — and poorer folks in rich countries — the hardest.
Suffering is always bad — I’d never minimize that.
The Iranian government was and is a malevolent force in the world, but the war was poorly conceived and may ironically end up making them stronger. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround, it would have been far better if the war had never happened.
That said, the world is a complicated place, and almost nothing is ever completely black and white.
We’re a travel newsletter, so here are some ways that skyrocketing energy costs could help travelers — and also the world at large.
It could provide relief to overtouristed locations and degraded ecosystems.
The world currently faces a major problem with overtourism, which occurs when a destination receives more visitors than it can sustainably support without negatively affecting locals, the environment, and even the visitors themselves.
Four years ago, when Michael and I visited Rome in November, we were shocked by the crowds — until a restaurateur told us, sadly, that the city no longer has a “low” season. And when we returned the following summer, we were stunned again to see just how insanely crowded the high season now is.
Likewise, we’re also often saddened by how degraded the environment seems in popular tourist destinations. Don’t get me started on coral reefs.
Over the last few decades, worldwide tourist rates have exploded, more than doubling since 2000. This is partly due to rising disposable income, especially in America, but it’s also the result of cheap airfares, which in 2025 were almost half of what they were in 1985 (when adjusted for inflation).
A return to higher airfares could finally start to reduce overtourism.
This could be a good thing for overwhelmed communities and degraded ecosystems. As with COVID, it could be a kind of “reset.”
But this is definitely a be-careful-what-you-wish-for situation, because many local economies are now very dependent on tourist dollars. If tourism slows, these communities could turn to industries that are even more harmful to locals and the environment.
Likewise, wealthy folks have always traveled for leisure — and always will. If airfares continue to rise, the people forced to cut back on travel will be those who were never able to afford leisure travel before the last few decades: the poor and the middle class.
It may finally cause the undoing of Donald Trump.
Regular readers know I think Donald Trump has been a toxic force in America and the world, undermining democracy, the rule of law, the liberal world order, and basic human decency.
I’m also one of those folks who has a hard time understanding the strong allegiance of his most faithful followers.
But if recent polls are any indication, that loyalty may finally be faltering. Better still, Trump’s party is up for reelection this November.
I confess that it frustrates me that many Americans were apparently fine with Trump’s corruption and lawlessness, the incredible cruelty, and all the rest — but now that the cost of gas is going up, these same folks are losing their shit.
But hey, a win is a win. And a loss for him and his party would make the whole world much better off.
It could hasten the switch to renewable energy sources.
When it comes to energy prices, environmental costs are rarely factored in. That’s because governments almost always prioritize short-term political and economic gains over long-term or “hidden” costs.
Climate change is already driving up insurance costs and increasing the frequency of expensive natural disasters. It could cost the world an eye-popping $38 trillion per year by 2049.
But when it comes to hurting the planet, not every government is equally bad.
When Trump took office as President of the United States for a second time, he embarked on an extremely regressive platform of heavily subsidizing harmful fossil fuels and essentially declaring war on renewable “clean” energy sources like wind and solar. He also dramatically rolled back environmental protections.
So it’s incredibly ironic — and kind of satisfying in a “schadenfreude” way — that the rising fossil fuel prices resulting from Trump’s war with Iran may actually end up reducing carbon emissions and increasing the speed with which the world transitions to renewable energy sources.
It could cause folks to rediscover their own communities.
Michael and I recently explained how we’re spending the next six months in the Seattle area, our home before we became digital nomads. It’s partly because of the international chaos, but mostly due to preexisting plans.
And we’ve been delighted to revisit favorite local destinations and even discover new things about this area that we’d never known before.
If airfares and gasoline prices stay high, expect local folks to discover the same thing all over the world.
It could provoke urban improvements that will make cities much more livable, especially in America.
I confess it’s a pet peeve of mine when Americans travel internationally and say, “These cities are so charming and walkable! Why can’t we have this in America?”
I always think: You could! But you — and your government and your captains of industry — are just choosing something very different.
When fossil fuels are heavily subsidized by the American government, people choose big houses, big cars, and an automobile-based lifestyle.
Why not? They’re not paying the actual costs.
But when fuel prices rise, the economic incentives change, and a car-based lifestyle becomes much less desirable. As a result, interest in all the things that make cities so much more “livable” outside America also rises: mixed-use neighborhoods, walkability, bike infrastructure, and safe, efficient public transportation.
As an added bonus, walkable, mixed-use cities also promote social cohesion, which I think we can all agree America really, really needs right now.
And it could provide some incredible travel bargains, especially for slow travelers.
Experts predict that airfares aren’t going down anytime soon. For the time being, consumers have continued to book expensive airline seats anyway.
But if the world economy slips into recession, it could result in an unusual situation: plunging demand at many tourist destinations but continued high airfares.
This means many travel expenses other than airfares would fall — especially for businesses that take some time to transition to other sectors, like lodging.
For short-term leisure travelers, this might still mean higher overall costs.
But for nomads or long-term travelers — especially “slomads” like Michael and me — the savings could be considerable.
For Americans, the situation is complicated by the fact that anti-American sentiment is also dramatically rising around the world. If the United States really does cause a global recession, I predict things would get very ugly very fast.
To be clear, rising energy costs are not a “mixed bag” situation. So far, the Iranian war has been an outright disaster for the world, creating a humanitarian crisis and an economic shock that is creating regional and international instability. And it’s almost certainly strengthened America’s biggest rival, China, and its ruthless dictator, Xi Jinping.
Still, history never moves in a straight line. Even disasters can reshape the world in ways no one intended.
Brent Hartinger is a screenwriter and author. Check out my new newsletter about my books and movies at www.BrentHartinger.com. And order my latest book below.
The sad thing when it comes to travel is that the rich will always be able to travel... But this will restrict how many young people might be able to take a gap year, and how many older people might be able to feel comfortable enough to do some traveling in their retirement. It's unfortunate that the people who are profiting the most off of this war will not be affected by it.
"I confess that it frustrates me that many Americans were apparently fine with Trump’s corruption and lawlessness, the incredible cruelty, and all the rest — but now that the cost of gas is going up, these same folks are losing their shit." YES--EXACTLY! AMEN, BROTHER!